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Trading Expectancy Calculator

By Katie, author of Katie TutorialsKatieTrader and educator · 7+ yearsKatie has traded short-term options for more than seven years and teaches 300,000+ subscribers on YouTube. Every lesson here comes from her own trading journal, mistakes included.Full bioNo signals, no paid mentoring. How the lessons are kept honest · Free tool · Reviewed October 1, 2026

Expectancy tells you what a strategy makes or loses on an average trade. It is the one number that says whether the strategy works. Enter your win rate and your average win and loss.

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Expectancy per trade

+$5.00

Contents (9)
  1. How to use the expectancy calculator
  2. What is trading expectancy?
  3. The expectancy formula
  4. Why a low win rate can still make money
  5. What is a good expectancy?
  6. Common mistakes
  7. Frequently asked questions
  8. Related calculators
  9. Learn it properly

How to use the expectancy calculator

  1. Open your trading journal and take at least your last 30 trades, better 100.
  2. Count the winners and divide by the total: that is your win rate.
  3. Average the money made on winners and the money lost on losers, after costs.
  4. Enter the three numbers. The calculator shows the average result per trade and over the number of trades you choose.

What is trading expectancy?

Expectancy is the average amount a strategy makes or loses per trade over many trades. It combines the two things that decide your results: how often you win and how big the wins are compared with the losses.

Win rate alone tells you very little, and so does the size of your best trade. Expectancy is the number that tells you whether to keep going.

The expectancy formula

expectancy = (win rate × average win) − (loss rate × average loss)

With a 45% win rate, an average win of 60 dollars and an average loss of 40 dollars: 0.45 × 60 − 0.55 × 40 = 27 − 22 = 5 dollars per trade. Over 100 trades that is about 500 dollars.

Why a low win rate can still make money

The two traders below show it. One loses more often than they win and still makes money. The other wins most of the time and still loses.

Trader ATrader B
Win rate40%70%
Average win$90$20
Average loss$40$60
Expectancy per trade+$12−$4

What is a good expectancy?

  • Below zero: the strategy loses money. More trades only make it worse.
  • Around zero: you are working for your broker. Costs will push it below zero.
  • Small but positive: it works, but check that costs are already in your averages.
  • Clearly positive: a real edge, as long as the numbers come from enough trades.

Common mistakes

  • Using too few trades. Ten trades can show almost anything by luck.
  • Leaving costs out. Use results after the spread and commission.
  • Mixing strategies. Work out expectancy for each setup separately.
  • Changing the size all the time. If some trades risk 10 dollars and others 100, the averages stop meaning much. Keep the risk per trade the same.

Frequently asked questions

How do you calculate expectancy in trading?

Multiply your win rate by your average win, then subtract your loss rate times your average loss. With 45% wins, a 60 dollar average win and a 40 dollar average loss: 27 − 22 = 5 dollars per trade.

What is a good expectancy?

Anything reliably above zero after costs. How big it is only matters next to how much you risk per trade.

Can a strategy with a high win rate lose money?

Yes. Winning 70% of the time with an average win of 20 dollars and an average loss of 60 dollars loses about 4 dollars per trade.

What is profit factor?

Total money won divided by total money lost. Above 1 means the strategy made money. A profit factor of 1.5 means it won 1.50 dollars for every dollar it lost.

How many trades do I need to calculate expectancy?

At least 30, and better 100. A handful of trades can show almost any result by luck.

Why are my results different from my expectancy?

Expectancy is an average. Any 10 or 20 trades can land far above or below it. That is normal.

Learn it properly

  1. 1How to Know If Your Trading Strategy Actually WorksExpectancy, sample size and normal drawdowns, explained step by step.
  2. 2How to Keep a Trading JournalWhere your win rate and averages come from.
  3. 3Why Do I Keep Losing Money in Trading?Ten reasons the number comes out negative.

For education only, not financial advice. Trading carries a real risk of losing money. Nothing you enter is saved or sent anywhere: the calculator runs in your browser.