By Katie
· Free tool · Reviewed October 1, 2026
On platforms that pay a fixed percentage when you win and take the whole amount when you lose, winning half your trades is not enough. Enter the payout and see the win rate you need just to stay at zero.
You need to win at least
55.6%
That is 56 winning trades out of every 100, just to break even.
Contents (8)
How to use the break-even calculator
- Enter the payout your platform shows for a winning trade, for example 80%.
- If the platform gives back part of a losing trade, enter that refund. Most do not, so leave it at 0.
- Read the win rate you need. Optional: enter your stake and your real win rate to see what 100 trades would bring.
How it works
When you win, you get the payout, for example 80% of your stake. When you lose, you lose 100% of it. A win brings back less than a loss takes away, so you need more wins than losses just to stay even.
break-even win rate = 1 ÷ (1 + payout)
with a refund on losses: (1 − refund) ÷ (payout + 1 − refund)
With an 80% payout that is 1 ÷ 1.8 = 55.6%. With an 80% payout and a 10% refund it is 0.9 ÷ 1.7 = 52.9%.
Break-even win rate for common payouts
| Payout | Win rate needed | Wins out of 100 |
|---|---|---|
| 70% | 58.8% | 59 |
| 75% | 57.1% | 58 |
| 80% | 55.6% | 56 |
| 85% | 54.1% | 55 |
| 90% | 52.6% | 53 |
| 95% | 51.3% | 52 |
Why 50% is a losing number
Say you trade 100 times, $10 each, with an 80% payout, and you win exactly half. The 50 wins pay you $400. The 50 losses cost you $500. You end $100 down, even though you were right as often as you were wrong.
That is the whole problem in one example. A strategy that looks fine on the chart can still lose money, because the payout decides the result as much as the entries do.
What to do with this number
- Check the payout before every trade. It changes between assets and during the day, and a lower payout raises the bar.
- Count your real win rate from your journal over at least 100 trades, not from a good week.
- If your real win rate is below the number above, the fix is not a bigger stake. Stop and find out why first.
Frequently asked questions
How do you calculate the break-even win rate for binary options?
Divide 1 by 1 plus the payout. With an 80% payout: 1 ÷ 1.8 = 55.6%. If the platform refunds part of a losing trade, use (1 − refund) ÷ (payout + 1 − refund).
What is a good payout?
The higher, the better, but even at 90% you still need to win more than half of your trades. There is no payout at which a coin-flip strategy makes money.
Does the stake change the win rate I need?
No. The break-even win rate depends only on the payout and any refund. The stake only changes how much you win or lose in money.
What if my platform refunds part of a losing trade?
A refund lowers the win rate you need. With an 80% payout and a 10% refund on losses you need 52.9% instead of 55.6%.
Why are my results worse than the calculator shows?
Usually because the real win rate over many trades is lower than it felt, or because the payout was lower on some trades than you assumed.
Related calculators
Learn it properly
- 1How to Know If Your Trading Strategy Actually WorksWin rate, average win and loss, and how many trades you need before the numbers mean anything.
- 2Parabolic SAR and EMA Crossover StrategyFive real 1-minute trades explained, with the rules behind each entry.
- 3How to Keep a Trading JournalThe simple record that tells you your real win rate.
For education only, not financial advice. Trading carries a real risk of losing money. Nothing you enter is saved or sent anywhere: the calculator runs in your browser.